The forward-looking statements and information given below are based on the Company’s current expectations and assessments. Consequently, they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Many factors, several of which are beyond the control of the KION Group, affect the Group’s business activities and profitability. Any unexpected developments in the global economy would result in the KION Group’s performance and profits differing significantly from those forecast below. The KION Group does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequently occurring events or circumstances. Furthermore, the KION Group cannot guarantee that future performance and actual profits generated will be consistent with the stated assumptions and estimates and can accept no liability in this regard.
Expected macroeconomic conditions
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook in July 2013, global economic growth will remain at the same level in 2013 as in 2012. A growth rate of 3.1 per cent is now forecast for the year as a whole, despite the fact that growth of 3.5 per cent had been anticipated for 2013 at the end of 2012. Economic output in the euro zone is expected to show a decline of 0.6 percentage points. The 2013 growth forecasts for the BRIC countries were lowered by up to 0.9 percentage points. Nevertheless, growth prospects remain good, for example in Brazil and China.
The forecast for economic conditions is based on the assumption that monetary and fiscal policy will support the global economy. There are also considerable risks resulting, in particular, from the sovereign debt problems in the euro zone and United States, the tightening of public finances and the possibility of destabilisation in financial markets.
Expected sectoral conditions
The overall market for industrial trucks depends on the economic environment in the sales markets combined with specific regional factors, with the level of capital investment and growth in the volume of world trade being particularly crucial. The global market for industrial trucks gradually picked up in the first half of 2013, growing by around 3.8 per cent, so the KION Group expects to see a slight recovery in demand for 2013 as a whole compared with 2012.
China, other Asian countries, eastern Europe and Brazil are the sales markets that are expected to drive growth, although China is likely to grow at a slower rate than previously anticipated. Provided demand in western Europe remains at the expected level and does not decline further, demand is likely to remain stable in western Europe, with most sales involving simply the replacement of old trucks.
Expected business situation and financial performance
The KION Group essentially reaffirms the forecasts made in the 2012 group management report. Nevertheless, economic and sectoral conditions have become more challenging. Given cost-related measures, this is not expected to have any significant impact on the financial position or financial performance of the KION Group. Provided the macroeconomic environment performs as expected and does not significantly weaken in the second half of the year, the KION Group’s objectives of moderate rises in revenue and adjusted EBIT (both excluding the hydraulics business) will remain unchanged.
Besides new truck sales, the service business is expected to contribute to revenue growth. For 2013 as a whole, the service business is expected to contribute over 40 per cent of revenue, which is slightly more than was forecast at the end of 2012. The emerging markets are expected to make a significant contribution to revenue growth. The reduction in borrowings should also be reflected in a rise in net income. In departure from the forecast for a positive net income at the end of 2012, the KION Group now expects net income to be significantly higher, partly due to one-off tax items arising from the capitalisation of deferred taxes.
Expected financial position
By using the issue proceeds (net of bank charges) and other cash and drawings under the new revolving loan facility to repay borrowings in July, the KION Group greatly improved its funding structure compared with the end of 2012.