Outlook, risk report and opportunity report

Outlook

Expected business performance

Contrary to the forecasts made in the 2018 group management report, there was a modest deterioration in the economic climate. The indicators for industrial output and manufacturing are also on a downward trend in comparison to the turn of the year.

Sectoral conditions are mixed. The positive trend that was anticipated for warehouse systems is being sustained by further fast growth in the online retail market. Unit sales of industrial trucks were weak in the first six months of the year, so there are currently doubts as to whether it will still be possible to achieve a growth rate close to the long-term trend of around 4 per cent for the year as a whole, as originally expected. This will partly depend on what happens next in the trade talks, particularly those between the US and China. Nevertheless, the overall market for industrial trucks and warehouse systems is likely to expand again in 2019, as originally forecasted.

Despite the temporary dip in economic data, the KION Group is adhering to the forecast for the year as a whole that was published in the 2018 combined management report and believes it will continue along its path of profitable growth while further improving its market position. Following rises in the first half of 2019, both revenue and adjusted EBIT are expected to increase over the year as a whole.

The order intake of the KION Group is still expected to be between €8,250 million and €8,950 million. The target figure for consolidated revenue remains in the range of €8,150 million to €8,650 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is unchanged at €805 million to €875 million. Free cash flow is expected to be in a range between €380 million and €480 million. The target figure for ROCE is in the range of 9.0 per cent to 10.0 per cent.

Order intake in the Industrial Trucks & Services segment is expected to be between €6,250 million and €6,450 million. The target figure for revenue is in the range of €6,050 million to €6,250 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €685 million to €720 million.

Order intake in the Supply Chain Solutions segment is expected to be between €2,000 million and €2,500 million. The target figure for revenue is in the range of €2,100 million to €2,400 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €190 million to €225 million.

Opportunity and risk report

The KION Group’s overall risk and opportunity situation has not changed significantly compared with the description in the 2018 combined management report. As things stand at present, there are no indications of any risks that could jeopardise the Company’s continuation as a going concern.