Outlook

Forward-looking statements

The forward-looking statements and information given below are based on the Company’s current expectations and assessments. Consequently, they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Many factors, several of which are beyond the control of the KION Group, affect the Group’s business activities and profitability as well as the earnings of KION GROUP AG. Any unexpected developments in the global economy would result in the KION Group’s and KION GROUP AG’s performance and profits differing significantly from those forecast below.

The KION Group does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequently occurring events or circumstances. Furthermore, the KION Group cannot guarantee that future performance and actual profits generated will be consistent with the stated assumptions and estimates and can accept no liability in this regard.

Actual business performance may deviate from our forecasts due, among other factors, to the opportunities and risks described here. Performance particularly depends on macroeconomic and industry-specific conditions and may be negatively affected by increasing uncertainty or a worsening of the economic and political situation.

Outlook for 2018

The overall assessment of the financial situation of the KION Group compares the outlook included in the 2017 combined management report with actual performance in 2018.

Assumptions

The forecasts in this section are derived from the KION Group’s multiple-year market, business and financial plan, which is based on certain assumptions. Market planning takes into account macroeconomic and industry-specific performance, which is described below. Business planning and financial planning are based on expected market performance, but also draw on other assumptions, such as those relating to changes in the cost of materials, the KION Group’s ability to command higher prices from customers and movements in exchange rates.

Expected macroeconomic conditions

In its outlook for 2019 published in January 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts continued global economic growth, which is slightly lower than the rate for 2018. Although growth is expected to weaken in the developed economies, partly as a result of the positive impact of the US tax reforms coming to an end, expansion in the emerging markets is forecast to continue almost unchanged. The IMF anticipates a slight dip in the eurozone’s moderate growth that will be attributable, in particular, to Germany, Italy and France.

According to the IMF’s prediction, the worldwide volume of trade will continue to grow at a constant rate.

This outlook from the IMF is lower than its previous expectations, which it primarily attributes to geopolitical risks. The IMF makes specific mention of the risks, for example in connection with the US/Chinese trade dispute, the consequences of the Brexit outcome, diminishing budgetary discipline in some eurozone countries and the high level of government debt in emerging markets.

Expected sectoral conditions

The overall market for industrial trucks and warehouse systems will continue to expand in 2019. Going forward, growth at regional level will again depend heavily on the strength of the economy in the main sales markets. In past years, the market’s growth – measured by the number of new trucks sold and the revenue of the largest system manufacturers – has consistently exceeded the growth rates for global gross domestic product (GDP). The KION Group believes that the fundamental drivers of growth are intact, particularly the global fragmentation of value chains and consumers’ increasing preference for e-commerce. In view of the largely stable macroeconomic prospects, the KION Group anticipates that the worldwide market for industrial trucks and warehouse systems will continue to expand at an above-average rate in 2019.

However, the growth of new industrial truck business is likely to normalise compared with the exceptional rates of expansion seen in 2017 and 2018, returning closer to the long-term trend of around 4 per cent. The EMEA and Americas regions are expected to register further moderate increases in orders. Sharper rises are anticipated in the APAC region, although it remains to be seen what impact the trade disputes will have. The KION Group is in an excellent position from which to take advantage of the expected progress in the electrification of warehouses. The constantly increasing number of trucks in operation worldwide provides a sustainable customer base for the service business.

Demand for supply chain solutions is likely to be underpinned by the strong inclination to invest seen in the main customer industries in connection with multichannel and e-commerce strategies. In the medium-term, market growth is expected to be in the high single digits.

Expected business situation and financial performance of the KION Group

In 2019, the KION Group aims to build on its successful performance in 2018 and, based on the forecasts for market growth, achieve further increases in revenue and adjusted EBIT.

The order intake of the KION Group is expected to be between €8,250 million and €8,950 million. The target figure for consolidated revenue is in the range of €8,150 million to €8,650 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €805 million to €875 million. Free cash flow is expected to be in a range between €380 million and €480 million. The target figure for ROCE is in the range of 9.0 per cent to 10.0 per cent.

Order intake in the Industrial Trucks & Services segment is expected to be between €6.250 million and €6,450 million. The target figure for revenue is in the range of €6,050 million to €6,250 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €685 million to €720 million.

Order intake in the Supply Chain Solutions segment is expected to be between €2,000 million and €2,500 million. The target figure for revenue is in the range of €2,100 million to €2,400 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €190 million to €225 million. > TABLE 027

Expected financial position of the KION Group

Having significantly reduced its financial liabilities in the reporting year, the KION Group intends to use free cash flow to achieve a further moderate decrease in net debt.

Overall statement on expected performance

The KION Group believes it will continue along its path of profitable growth and aims to further improve its market position worldwide in 2019.