Macroeconomic and sector-specific conditions

Macroeconomic conditions

The global economy has only managed muted growth over the year so far. In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth forecast for 2014 to 3.3 per cent (compared with 3.4 per cent in July). The main causes for concern are geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East, plus resurgent uncertainty in the financial markets. Different rates of growth were observable in the major economic areas. Whereas there has been a robust economic uptrend and rapidly falling unemployment in the United States, growth in the eurozone has been subdued. In particular, recent economic data from Germany, France and Italy proved disappointing. Sentiment was depressed by familiar problems, such as low inflation, persistently high debt levels and geopolitical uncertainty. Nevertheless, there are countries – the United Kingdom and Spain – that continue to generate sound economic growth.

Following a weak start to the year, the IMF predicts slightly slower growth for China, with the rate of growth stabilising at a lower level than last year. Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, is in recession, however. Economic regulation is still proving to be a particular impediment to investment. Eastern Europe offers a mixed picture. Many countries in the east of the European Union continue to benefit from the, albeit only moderate, economic recovery in the eurozone. By contrast, Russia is still suffering from the economic fallout of the conflict with Ukraine and, more generally, from structural problems.

Sectoral conditions

Sales markets

Over the course of the year, there has been a slight slowdown in the global market for industrial trucks. Measured in terms of trucks sold, the market expanded by 6.4 per cent in the third quarter, which was less than in the first quarter (9.7 per cent) and second quarter (8.9 per cent). The main reason for this trend was weaker demand for diesel trucks (down by 0.6 per cent) during the third quarter. However, electric forklift trucks and warehouse trucks again generated strong growth, gaining 14.0 per cent and 11.9 per cent respectively in the third quarter. In the nine-month period, orders in the market as a whole were up by 8.3 per cent year on year.

Registering an increase of 12.6 per cent in the first nine months, western Europe continued to be a major growth driver. The rate of expansion in this market remained at a similarly strong level in the third quarter as in the previous quarter. Germany, the largest single market in western Europe, gained 11.2 per cent in the period January to September and was therefore only slightly below the western European average. Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom generated above-average growth. France, the second largest single market, reported stagnant order numbers, however.

The Russian market remained weak, whereas other eastern European countries – such as the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary – continued to grow.

In China, which accounts for more than a quarter of all new trucks ordered worldwide, market growth tailed off further in the third quarter, primarily due to a slight decline in the volume of diesel trucks. Nevertheless, China generated growth of 12.2 per cent over the first nine months of the year. Orders in South America continued to decline. This was particularly true of the largest market, Brazil, where orders fell by 13.3 per cent. By contrast, Central America achieved an encouraging rise of 18.0 per cent, while the United States registered an increase of 6.3 per cent for the nine-month period. >> Table 02

Procurement markets and conditions in the financial markets

Overall, commodity prices were lower in the first nine months of 2014 than in the same period of the previous year, with metals also becoming cheaper in the third quarter. From early July onwards, the oil price continued to fall and was also below the average for the previous year.

The monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) remained expansionary, which was one of the main reasons why the euro began to fall against other reserve currencies from July. The ECB announced that there would be further measures aimed at tackling economic weakness and the risk of deflation.