Macroeconomic and sector-specific conditions

Macroeconomic conditions

According to the outlook published by the IMF in July 2024, global economic growth will stabilize in 2024 after three years of declining growth rates and despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in worldwide disinflation. Global inflation has fallen so far this year, but more slowly than had been anticipated. As a result, the central banks are likely to ease monetary policy only cautiously and therefore keep key interest rates at an elevated level for longer than anticipated. Renewed trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions remain sources of growing risk (IMF, July 2024).

For 2024 as a whole, the IMF predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.2 percent, following its 3.3 percent rate of expansion in 2023. The advanced economies are set to repeat their growth rate of 1.7 percent, with the eurozone economy projected to grow by 0.9 percent in 2024 (2023: 0.5 percent). Economic growth in the US is in line to improve marginally to 2.6 percent (2023: 2.5 percent). Growth in the emerging markets and developing economies is forecast to be 4.3 percent (2023: 4.4 percent), which mainly reflects China’s projected growth rate of 5.0 percent (2023: 5.2 percent), driven by strong exports in the first quarter and the rebound of private consumption (IMF, July 2024).

Sectoral conditions

Sales markets

Based on the KION Group’s assessment, order numbers in the first half of 2024 in the global market for industrial trucks were comparable with those in the prior-year period. Official figures (World Industrial Trucks Statistics, July 2024) show that first-quarter order numbers were substantially higher year on year in the EMEA and APAC regions but fell more sharply than anticipated in the Americas region. Overall, order numbers in the worldwide market were thus on a par with the prior-year period in the first quarter. The KION Group estimates that order numbers fell moderately year on year in the second quarter of 2024; official figures for the growth trend in the overall market for industrial trucks in the second quarter of 2024 were not available at the time this report was published.

According to the KION Group, and backed up by data from market research institute Interact Analysis, the global market for supply chain solutions was subdued in terms of revenue during the reporting period. Only the market in the Americas region recorded slight growth, driven by the pick-up of demand in the US. In the EMEA and APAC regions, however, economic uncertainties stemming from high rates of inflation, geopolitical tensions, and China’s real estate crisis caused customer investment in warehouse automation to slow (Interact Analysis, June 2024).

Procurement markets

The commodity markets presented a mixed picture in the reporting period. The price per barrel of crude oil increased to above the US$ 80 mark in the first quarter of 2024 and then rose again slightly in the second quarter. The steel price fell by around 6 percent in the first half of the year. There was also a 23 percent drop in the price of nickel, whereas the price of copper went up by 7 percent.

Financial markets

The KION Group generated 48.6 percent (H1 2023: 50.4 percent) of its revenue outside the eurozone in the reporting period. As in previous periods, the US dollar, pound sterling, and the Chinese renminbi were the most important foreign currencies. The euro depreciated moderately against the US dollar and pound sterling in the first six months of 2024, whereas its value relative to the Chinese renminbi saw little change. Overall, currency effects had only a negligible impact on the KION Group’s operating performance in the period under review.