Outlook

Expected macroeconomic and sectoral conditions 

Despite ongoing uncertainties, the July 2024 forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) still predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.2 percent this year (IMF, January 2024: 3.1 percent). However, inflation risks have increased against the backdrop of the current trade disputes and geopolitical turmoil, which means that key interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer (IMF, July 2024). 

In the KION Group’s view, these macroeconomic uncertainties are leading to persistent reluctance to invest on the part of customers in the market for industrial trucks and supply chain solutions, which is why the KION Group has updated its market outlook for 2024 as a whole.

The KION Group is predicting that order numbers in the global market for new industrial trucks in 2024 will be almost on a par with the level recorded in 2023. In the outlook for 2024 published in the 2023 annual report, the assumption had been that order numbers would rise slightly. The KION Group now anticipates that order numbers will hold steady year on year in the EMEA region but decline significantly in the Americas region. Its expectation of an increase in order numbers in the APAC region is unchanged. 

According to the KION Group and backed up by research from Interact Analysis, the volume in the supply chain solutions market (as measured by revenue) is now likely to decrease slightly at global level in 2024, whereas slight growth had previously been predicted. A small increase is anticipated in the Americas region, but the markets in the EMEA and APAC regions are both expected to contract owing to the continued economic uncertainties (Interact Analysis, June 2024).

Altogether, these new assessments from the KION Group regarding order numbers and volumes in the market for industrial trucks and supply chain solutions for 2024 as a whole have resulted in the firming up of the forecast ranges that were presented for the Group and the operating segments in the 2023 annual report.

Expected business situation and financial performance of the KION Group 

In view of business performance in the first half of this year and despite the lower market expectations for the year as a whole, the Executive Board of KION GROUP AG has firmed up the outlook for 2024 within the original forecast ranges that were presented for the Group and the two operating segments in the 2023 annual report. This adjusted outlook is as follows: