Outlook

Forward-looking statements

The forward-looking statements and information given below are based on the KION Group’s current expectations and assessments up to the time of preparation of this combined management report. Consequently, they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Many factors, some of which are beyond the control of the management, affect the Group’s business activities and business performance as well as the earnings of the strategic management holding company, KION GROUP AG. Any unexpected changes, particularly in macroeconomic or industry-specific conditions, may lead to the results of the KION Group and its operating segments differing significantly from those forecast below.

The outlook for 2024 is subject to uncertainty in view of the still fraught macroeconomic and geopolitical climate at the time that this combined management report was being prepared. The risk factors described below may also have an adverse impact on the KION Group’s procurement, production, and sales activities.

The KION Group does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequently occurring events or circumstances. Furthermore, the KION Group cannot guarantee that future performance and actual profits generated will be consistent with the stated assumptions and estimates and can accept no liability in this regard. Actual business performance may deviate from the KION Group’s forecasts due, among other factors, to the opportunities and risks described here.

Assumptions

The forecasts in this section are derived from the KION Group’s multi-year market, business, and financial planning, which is based on various assumptions. Market planning takes into account predicted macroeconomic and industry-specific performance, which is described below. Business planning and financial planning are based on expected market performance but also draw on other assumptions, such as those relating to changes in the cost of materials and labor costs, the sale prices achievable, and movements in interest rates and exchange rates.

Expected macroeconomic conditions

The IMF expects global economic output to increase by 3.1 percent in 2024 and thus to reach a similar level of growth as in 2023; the recent historical average stands at 3.8 percent (2000–2019). Economic growth will be adversely affected by restrictive monetary policy, the withdrawal of fiscal support measures, and low underlying productivity growth (IMF, January 2024).

Advanced economies will expand by 1.5 percent overall (2023: 1.6 percent), with growth picking up slightly in the eurozone at 0.9 percent but falling year on year in the US, to 2.1 percent.

In the emerging markets and developing economies, growth is anticipated to hold steady at its 2023 level of 4.1 percent. In China, the pace of growth is expected to slow to 4.6 percent.

The IMF believes that the global inflation rate will decrease to 5.8 percent in 2024 as a result of restrictive monetary policy, the associated weakening of the labor market, and falling energy prices. Inflation in the advanced economies is expected to drop significantly, to 2.6 percent, whereas it is likely to fall only slightly in the emerging markets and developing economies, to 8.1 percent.

According to the IMF, world trade will increase by 3.3 percent in 2024 after having largely stagnated in 2023. Nevertheless, the IMF does see significant risks within its macroeconomic outlook. For example, supply shocks caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the continued attacks in the Red Sea, and the war in Ukraine could lead to further spikes in food, energy, and transportation costs. A subsequent renewed rise in inflation would, at the same time, entrench the tight monetary policy that serves to constrain growth. A greater emphasis on tax hikes and spending cuts as a result of the necessary fiscal consolidation in many countries is also seen as a risk to global economic growth. In China, the still ailing real estate sector could continue to have a negative impact on domestic growth as well as on the country’s trade partners.

Expected sectoral conditions

Based on the macroeconomic environment described above, the KION Group expects the global material handling market to increasingly stabilize in 2024 following negative growth rates in the reporting year.

The KION Group is predicting slight growth in the market for new industrial trucks in 2024 based on order numbers. This will be driven mainly by an anticipated upturn in the APAC and EMEA regions, whereas demand is expected to decrease in the Americas region. In the long term, and based on its own analysis, the KION Group currently expects market growth in the new truck business to remain in the mid-single digit percentage range.

The size of the supply chain solutions market, as measured by revenue, will slightly increase in 2024 according to the KION Group and backed up by research from Interact Analysis. The continuing trend toward automation and the anticipated fall in the cost of capital over the course of the year are expected to make companies more likely to invest in warehouse automation. Meanwhile, the predicted sustained demand for mobile automation is set to boost the market for supply chain solutions. The KION Group believes that the positive medium- and long-term trends in the supply chain solutions market remain intact. Based on its own assessment and supported by data gathered by Interact Analysis (November 2023), the KION Group anticipates that long-term market growth will be in the high single-digit range.

Expected business situation and financial performance of the KION Group

The KION Group improved its resilience in 2023, and thus put itself on a solid footing for 2024, thanks to the measures – now largely implemented – to enhance operational and commercial agility in the supply chain and in production and to its pricing and contract arrangements in respect of customers.

The Industrial Trucks & Services segment is expected to see its revenue rise slightly in 2024, not only because it still had a healthy pipeline in the order book at the end of 2023, but also because of the anticipated market situation, with a modest rise in new truck orders. Moreover, the increasing number of industrial trucks in operation worldwide provides a sustainable customer base for further revenue growth in the service business. The KION Group predicts that the adjusted EBIT of the Industrial Trucks & Services segment will continue to grow. This reflects the expectation of a higher volume of business and continued positive effects from the price rises that have been introduced, while labor costs are projected to rise only moderately.

In the Supply Chain Solutions segment, the focus is still on continuing to strengthen operational resilience by structuring contracts for new projects in a way that minimizes risk, on improved processes in procurement, and on project delivery and project management. The Supply Chain Solutions segment is expected to see revenue fall year on year in 2024 because the order book as at the end of 2023 was smaller than at the end of 2022 and contained a higher proportion of long-term projects. A recovery in the market served by the project business is not expected until the second half of the year. Further revenue growth is projected for the high-margin service business due to the maintenance, modernization, and upgrading that will be required for the growing number of solutions already installed for customers. The KION Group expects profitability in the long-term project business (business solutions) to improve because the proportion of customer contracts that contain more flexible pricing arrangements is likely to be higher than in 2023 and because of process enhancements and adjustments to personnel capacity. However, work on legacy projects will have a negative impact on adjusted EBIT and profitability until at least the first half of 2024. Overall, the KION Group expects the Supply Chain Solutions segment’s adjusted EBIT to improve substantially year on year.

The Executive Board expects the core key performance indicators of the KION Group and its operating segments to be within the following ranges in 2024:

Overall statement on expected performance

For 2024, reflecting the midpoint of the performance range that has been projected, the Executive Board of KION GROUP AG expects the Group’s revenue to increase slightly and its adjusted EBIT to rise significantly compared with 2023. A small year-on-year rise is predicted for return on capital employed (ROCE). Free cash flow in 2024 is set to be in positive territory in line with the healthy financial performance that is anticipated, but fall short of the high level of free cash flow achieved in 2023. However, the aforementioned geopolitical and market-related risks continue to create uncertainty regarding the business performance of the Group and its operating segments.