Outlook

Forward-looking statements

The forward-looking statements and information given below are based on the Company’s current expectations and assessments. Consequently, they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Many factors, several of which are beyond the control of the KION Group, affect the Group’s business activities and profitability as well as the earnings of KION GROUP AG. Any unexpected developments in the global economy would result in the KION Group’s and KION GROUP AG’s performance and profits differing significantly from those forecast below.

The KION Group does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequently occurring events or circumstances. Furthermore, the KION Group cannot guarantee that future performance and actual profits generated will be consistent with the stated assumptions and estimates and can accept no liability in this regard.

Actual business performance may deviate from our forecasts due, among other factors, to the opportunities and risks described here. Performance particularly depends on macroeconomic and industry-specific conditions and may be negatively affected by increasing uncertainty or a worsening of the economic and political situation.

Assumptions

The forecasts in this section are derived from the KION Group’s multiple-year market, business and financial planning, which is based on various assumptions. Market planning takes into account macroeconomic and industry-specific performance, which is described below. Business planning and financial planning are based on expected market performance, but also draw on other assumptions, such as those relating to changes in the cost of materials, labour costs, sale prices and movements in exchange rates.

Expected macroeconomic conditions

In its outlook for 2020 published in January 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a modest increase in the rate of global growth to 3.3 per cent, which will be driven mainly by the anticipated rally in the economies of the emerging markets and developing nations. The IMF expects higher growth rates particularly for India, Russia and Central and South America, whereas growth in China is likely to slow a little. By contrast, the pace of expansion in the developed economies – including the eurozone – will remain at the low level achieved in 2019. According to the IMF’s prediction, the worldwide volume of trade will grow at a much faster rate than last year.

Initial indications that the manufacturing industry and global trade appear to have turned the corner are positive signals for the global economy. They are accompanied by an intensification of expansionary monetary policy by the central banks, the first signs of a rapprochement in the US-China trade dispute. The UK’s withdrawal from the EU on 31 January 2020 and the associated transition phase also supports the assessment of a possible economic recovery.

This outlook from the IMF is lower than its previous expectations, which it primarily attributes to unexpected macroeconomic difficulties in some emerging markets.

The organisation makes explicit reference to risks that may result, for example, from an escalation in the trade dispute between the US and some of its trading partners or from geopolitical factors.

Expected sectoral conditions

The overall market for industrial trucks and warehouse systems is likely to see further strong growth in 2020 if economic conditions stabilise slightly as expected. The ongoing expansion of the supply chain solutions market and a stabilisation of the global market for industrial trucks are primed to be the engines of growth. Overall, the global material handling market is once again expected to grow at a much faster rate than global GDP. The KION Group believes that this is primarily because the fundamental growth drivers will remain intact, particularly the fragmentation of value chains and consumers’ increasing preference for e-commerce. Growth at regional level, particularly in the cyclical market for industrial trucks, will again depend heavily on the economic conditions in the main sales markets.

Following the market correction in 2019, the KION Group is expecting new business with industrial trucks in terms of unit sales to hold steady in 2020, but to be below the long-term growth trend of around 4 per cent. Further geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty cannot be ruled out for the year 2020. The KION Group is in an excellent position from which to take advantage of the continued progress that is expected in the electrification of warehouses. The high number of trucks in operation worldwide provides a sustainable customer base for the service business.

In 2020, demand for supply chain solutions in the form of warehouse automation is likely to again be underpinned by the strong inclination to invest seen in the main customer industries in connection with omnichannel and e-commerce strategies. In the medium-term, market growth is expected to be in the high single digits.

Expected business situation and financial performance of the KION Group

In 2020, the KION Group aims to build on its successful performance in 2019 and, based on the forecasts for market growth, record a moderate increase in revenue. The KION Group’s adjusted EBIT for 2020 will be adversely affected by the substantial volume of strategic capital expenditure aimed at further expanding the business.

The order intake of the KION Group is expected to be between €9,050.0 million and €9,750.0 million. The target figure for consolidated revenue is in the range of €8,650.0 million to €9,250.0 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €770.0 million to €850.0 million. Free cash flow is expected to be in a range between €270.0 million and €370.0 million. The target figure for ROCE is in the range of 8.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent.

Order intake in the Industrial Trucks & Services segment is expected to be between €6,250.0 million and €6,550.0 million. The target figure for revenue is in the range of €6,150.0 million to €6,450.0 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €610.0 million to €650.0 million.

Order intake in the Supply Chain Solutions segment is expected to be between €2,800.0 million and €3,200.0 million. The target figure for revenue is in the range of €2,500.0 million to €2,800.0 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €240.0 million to €280.0 million. > TABLE 026

Expected financial position of the KION Group

Having significantly reduced its net financial debt as at 31 December 2019, the KION Group does initially not plan to further reduce financial liabilities in view of the upcoming capital expenditure.

Overall statement on expected performance

The KION Group believes it will continue along its path of growth and aims to further improve its market position worldwide in 2020. The higher level of strategic capital expenditure will adversely affect adjusted EBIT and thus profitability in 2020. The outlook for the fiscal year 2020 does not take into account possible effects from global pandemics or comparable events, as a valid estimate of the resulting effects is not possible due to insufficient data.