Outlook

Forward-looking statements

The forward-looking statements and information given below are based on the Company’s current expectations and assessments. Consequently, they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Many factors, some of which are beyond the control of the KION Group, affect the Group’s business activities and profitability as well as the earnings of KION GROUP AG. Performance particularly depends on macroeconomic and industry-specific conditions and may be negatively affected by increasing uncertainty or a worsening of the economic and political situation. Any unexpected developments in the global economy would result in the KION Group’s and KION GROUP AG’s performance and profits differing significantly from those forecast below.

The outlook for 2022 is particularly uncertain in view of the ongoing pandemic and the resulting impact on global supply chains as at the end of 2021. If the pandemic worsens, for example, the authorities may impose renewed restrictions that would adversely affect procurement, production, and sales activities and make customers less willing to invest.

The KION Group does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequently occurring events or circumstances. Furthermore, the KION Group cannot guarantee that future performance and actual profits generated will be consistent with the stated assumptions and estimates and can accept no liability in this regard. Actual business performance may deviate from the KION Group’s forecasts due, among other factors, to the opportunities and risks described here.

Assumptions

The forecasts in this section are derived from the KION Group’s multiple-year market, business, and financial planning, which is based on various assumptions. Market planning takes into account macroeconomic and industry-specific performance, which is described below. Business planning and financial planning are based on expected market performance, but also draw on other assumptions, such as those relating to changes in the cost of materials, labor costs, sale prices, and movements in exchange rates.

With regard to the further course of the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken in response, this outlook is based on the market assumptions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its economic report published in January 2022, the IMF significantly lowered the forecast for global growth in 2022 compared with the outlook that it had issued in October 2021. This is due to the emergence of the new Omicron variant of coronavirus and the containment measures that have been reintroduced as a result in many countries. Moreover, rising energy and commodity prices as well as disruptions to supply chains are leading to inflation risks. Other factors pointing to gloomier growth prospects according to the IMF are the ongoing difficulties in the Chinese real-estate sector and the slower than anticipated recovery of consumer spending.

Expected macroeconomic conditions

The IMF expects global economic output to rise by 4.4 percent in 2022 (2021: 5.9 percent), although the pace of growth is likely to vary from region to region. The higher growth rate for 2021 was driven by anticipated pent-up demand in connection with the coronavirus pandemic. The IMF predicts growth of 3.9 percent for the developed economies in 2022, a slower rise than in the previous year (2021: 5.0 percent). The US economy is set to expand at a rate of 4.0 percent, which would be slightly above the average for the developed economies of 3.9 percent, whereas growth in the eurozone is expected to be 3.9 percent.

According to the IMF, the economies of the emerging markets and developing countries will expand by 4.8 percent, a significantly slower rate of growth than in the previous year (2021: 6.5 percent). Notably, China is expected to grow by just 4.8 percent in 2022, compared with a rate of 8.1 percent in the reporting year. The reasons for this include the problems in the real-estate sector and the economic restrictions resulting from the zero-COVID strategy.

The IMF believes that the volume of global trade will rise by 6.0 percent in 2022, significantly lower than the rise of 9.3 percent in 2021, which was boosted by pent-up demand.

The emergence of new coronavirus variants that may prolong the pandemic and lead to further economic difficulties is one of the risks that the IMF sees for the macroeconomic outlook. In addition, supply chain disruptions, volatile energy prices, and local wage pressures have created a great deal of uncertainty with regard to inflation and its consequences. Potential interest-rate hikes in advanced economies may result in risks to financial stability and to capital flows, currencies, and the financial situation in emerging markets and developing countries. Other global risks may arise because the geopolitical situation is still very tense and the ongoing climate emergency makes major natural disasters more likely.

Expected sectoral conditions

Based on the economic conditions described above, the KION Group believes that the global material handling market will grow at a moderate rate in 2022. This growth is expected to be driven mainly by the supply chain solutions business, whereas the global market for industrial trucks (including services) is likely to stabilize at below the level achieved in 2021. In the medium to long term, the KION Group expects the material handling market to grow at a much faster rate than global GDP. This is primarily because the central growth drivers will remain intact, particularly the fragmentation of value chains and the ongoing consumer pivot toward e-commerce. Growth at regional level, especially in the more cyclical market for new industrial trucks, will again depend heavily on economic conditions in the main sales markets.

The KION Group is predicting a high single-digit percentage decline in the number of new industrial trucks ordered in 2022 following a very strong year for this market in 2021. This is mainly due to an anticipated decrease in the EMEA and Americas regions. By contrast, new orders are expected to increase in the APAC region, where growth will again be driven primarily by China. Beyond 2022, the KION Group expects to see long-term market growth in the new truck business of around 4 percent. The high number of trucks in operation worldwide provides solid foundations for further revenue growth in the service business.

Based on external analysis of the market, the KION Group believes that the sustained growth in e-commerce will see the market for supply chain solutions continue to expand in 2022 in line with the long-term trend of more than 10 percent.

Expected business situation and financial performance of the KION Group

The KION Group has set itself the goal for 2022 of maintaining the profitable growth generated in 2021 and growing in revenue at a faster rate than the global material handling market.

Order intake in the Industrial Trucks & Services segment is expected to be lower than in 2021 due to an anticipated decline in the global market for industrial trucks. However, revenue is predicted to rise sharply, supported by the strength of the order book at the end of 2021. Furthermore, the KION Group will forge ahead with capital expenditure on creating more capacity – in places such as China (Jinan) and eastern Europe – and expand its service activities as a means of generating additional business along the product lifecycle. It also plans to achieve further efficiency gains, in part by relocating the manufacturing of products to other sites.

In the Supply Chain Solutions segment, the Company intends to maintain its growth by focusing heavily on highly promising market segments in warehouse automation, software, and robotics solutions. To this end, it will expand the services provided throughout the lifecycle of customers’ equipment and technology. Additional production capacity and the expansion of project-related personnel resources are expected to support this growth. In addition, the Company is looking to improve the gross margin through a greater degree of standardization and greater efficiency in the delivery of projects.

The order intake of the KION Group is expected to be between €11,600 million and €12,800 million. The target figure for consolidated revenue is in the range of €11,000 million to €12,000 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €1,010 million to €1,150 million. Free cash flow is expected to be in a range between €520 million and €640 million. The target figure for ROCE is in the range of 11.0 percent to 12.0 percent.

Order intake in the Industrial Trucks & Services segment is expected to be between €7,200 million and €7,800 million. The target figure for revenue is in the range of €7,000 million to €7,600 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €655 million to €735 million.

Order intake in the Supply Chain Solutions segment is expected to be between €4,400 million and €5,000 million. The target figure for revenue is in the range of €4,000 million to €4,400 million. The target range for adjusted EBIT is €465 million to €525 million.

Overall statement on expected performance

Having returned to growth in the global material handling market in 2021, the KION Group anticipates that it will generate further growth in 2022. The KION Group predicts an improvement in its adjusted EBIT and profitability compared with 2021, although there are still significant uncertainties in the procurement markets with regard to both the availability and price of materials.