Outlook

Forward-looking statements

The forward-looking statements and information given below are based on the KION Group’s current expectations and assessments up to the time of preparation of this combined management report. Consequently, they involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Many factors, some of which are beyond the control of the management, affect the Group’s business activities and business performance as well as the earnings of the strategic management holding company, KION GROUP AG. Any unexpected changes, particularly in macroeconomic or industry-specific conditions, may lead to the results of the KION Group and its operating segments differing significantly from those forecast below.

The outlook for 2026 is subject to uncertainty in view of the still fraught macroeconomic and geopolitical climate at the time that this combined management report was being prepared. The risk factors described below may also have an adverse impact on the KION Group’s procurement, production, and sales activities.

The KION Group does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequently occurring events or circumstances. Furthermore, the KION Group cannot guarantee that future performance and actual profits generated will be consistent with the stated assumptions and estimates and can accept no liability in this regard. Actual business performance may deviate from the KION Group’s forecasts due, among other factors, to the opportunities and risks described here.

Assumptions

The forecasts in this section are derived from the KION Group’s multi-year market, business, and financial planning, which is based on various assumptions. Market planning takes into account predicted macroeconomic and industry-specific performance, as described below. Business planning and financial planning are based on expected market performance but also draw on other assumptions, such as those relating to changes in the cost of materials and labor costs, the sale prices achievable, and movements in interest rates and exchange rates.

Expected macroeconomic conditions

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting stable global economic growth of 3.3 percent for 2026, which is the same rate as in 2025 (3.3 percent). The situation will vary from region to region, reflecting the ongoing uncertainties stemming from geopolitical tensions, protectionist tendencies, and economic policy risks (IMF, January 2026).

Although the momentum in high-tech sectors is set to slow, it will continue to offset some of the drag in other areas of the economy. The implementation of tariffs and persistent uncertainties will remain a negative factor, but their braking effect on growth should fade noticeably as the year goes on (IMF, January 2026).

Growth of 1.8 percent is expected for advanced economies in 2026. In the US, the forecast of 2.4 percent is slightly higher than the 2025 growth rate, whereas the projection for the eurozone of 1.3 percent is marginally lower. Emerging markets and developing countries are predicted to achieve growth of 4.2 percent, which is lower than in 2025. For China, the IMF anticipates that the pace of growth will slow to 4.5 percent.

The IMF believes that the global inflation rate will fall to 3.8 percent in 2026. In advanced economies, inflation is expected to slow to 2.2 percent. The rate of inflation in emerging markets and developing economies is also likely to drop, falling to 4.8 percent.

According to the IMF, the volume of global trade will increase by just 2.6 percent in 2026. This is significantly lower than the 2025 rate, which was influenced by trade activities being brought forward and adjustment to new policies.

Nevertheless, the IMF continues to see considerable risks within its macroeconomic outlook. Geopolitical tensions remain a major risk. Any resulting disruptions to global supply chains and transportation routes could push up prices for energy and commodities once again. Moreover, growing protectionism might adversely affect global trade and weaken the stability of international value chains. If productivity increases from the use of artificial intelligence are not as substantial as expected, this could weigh on financial markets and cause financing conditions to deteriorate. There are also risks stemming from high government debt in a number of major economies, along with rising levels of corporate debt.

Expected sectoral conditions

Based on numbers of orders, the KION Group is predicting slight growth in the global market for new industrial trucks in 2026. The EMEA, APAC, and Americas regions are each expected to see a slight uptick in new business too. The factors driving this trend will include the expected stable level of global economic growth and a diminishing rate of inflation, which should increase customers’ propensity for capital expenditure over the course of the year. Structural market stimulus will also have an effect, in particular the growing demand for electric industrial trucks.

In the market for warehouse automation solutions, the KION Group anticipates a strong year-on-year increase in order intake in 2026, supported by data from Interact Analysis. This rise will primarily be driven by the sustained trend toward automation, extensive automation projects, growing demand for mobile automation, and an increase in value as a result of higher project costs. The market is likely to see material growth in Europe and a strong increase in the Americas and APAC. The KION Group and Interact Analysis believe that the positive market trends will remain intact in the medium to long term (Interact Analysis, December 2025).

Expected business situation and financial performance of the KION Group

Expectations around the KION Group’s business situation and financial performance in 2026 will be influenced by the different rates of growth in the two operating segments. The expectations set out below relate to the middle of the relevant forecast range.

The Industrial Trucks & Services segment is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in revenue in 2026 in view of the assumptions regarding the market situation. At the same time, the efficiency program will provide a boost to earnings. Its positive effects were already discernible in 2025 and should be almost entirely unlocked during 2026. By contrast, ongoing competitive pressure is anticipated, which is likely to weigh on price levels. Overall, a marked rise in the segment’s earnings and profitability is anticipated.

In the Supply Chain Solutions segment, revenue is expected to increase significantly in 2026 thanks to a much better order situation in the project business and sustained positive momentum in the service business. The higher level of revenue, an improved gross margin in the project business, and the high-margin service business will have a significant positive impact on adjusted EBIT, resulting in a further rise in profitability.

For 2026, the Executive Board of KION GROUP AG anticipates moderate growth of consolidated revenue and a significant improvement in adjusted EBIT compared with 2025. Return on capital employed (ROCE) is likely to be noticeably higher than in 2025. The Group’s free cash flow is expected to be significantly lower than in 2025 because a material proportion of the non-recurring expenses from the efficiency program will only start impacting on cash flow over the course of 2026. Moreover, the KION Group is planning an increased level of acquisition-related capital expenditure compared with 2025.

The KION Group is aiming for its core key performance indicators and those of its operating segments to be within the following ranges:

Overall statement on expected performance

As the efficiency program aimed at strengthening competitiveness and capacity to carry out capital investment reaches its end and implementation of the action fields in the new ‘Playing to Win strategy’ begins, the KION Group believes that it is in a strong position to be able to continue generating profitable growth even amid ongoing challenging market conditions. For 2026, the Executive Board of KION GROUP AG anticipates a solid overall rise in the Group’s revenue, combined with a significant increase in adjusted EBIT and a marked improvement in ROCE. The Group’s free cash flow is expected to be lower than in 2025 due to one-off effects.

However, the assessment of the projected performance of the Group and its operating segments is contingent on there being no significant disruption in the KION Group’s sales markets or procurement markets resulting from geopolitical conflicts and potential trade barriers.